115 forecasters

When will the following vehicles launch into orbit?

New Glennresult: 16 Jan 2025 07:03 UTC

Ariane 6result: 09 Jul 2024 08:00 UTC

Vulcan Centaurresult: 08 Jan 2024 02:30 UTC

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Nov 30, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2026

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard

Blue Origin launches New Glenn rocket on NASA Mars mission. Here's a recap

USA Today•Nov 14, 2025

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin launches New Glenn rocket destined for Mars

Independent•Nov 14, 2025

Blue Origin launches huge rocket carrying twin NASA spacecraft to Mars

NBC•Nov 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the proportion of orbital launches in 2030 for the following launcher categories?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

When will a reusable single-stage-to-orbit vehicle deliver a payload to orbit?

>Jan 2036

(Aug 2035 - >Jan 2036)

>Jan 2036

(Aug 2035 - >Jan 2036)

18 forecasters