15 comments
102 forecasters
Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
25%chance
Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2023
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When will a satellite be equipped with a nuclear weapon?
Jan 2061
(Nov 2042 - >2100)
Jan 2061
(Nov 2042 - >2100)
8 forecasters
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
3.25 tests
(1.39 - 6.49)
3.25 tests
(1.39 - 6.49)
44 forecasters
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
6% chance
48