15 comments
102 forecasters
Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?
28%chance
Forecast Timeline
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Authors:
Opened:Dec 6, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 30, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 22, 2023
How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?
3.26 tests
(1.39 - 6.56)
3.26 tests
(1.39 - 6.56)
44 forecasters
Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?
7% chance
48
What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?
1028 events
(797 - 1346)
1028 events
(797 - 1346)
37 forecasters