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3
107
forecasters
11
3 comments
107 forecasters
🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰
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Will US law continue prohibiting NASA cooperation with the Chinese government before 2030?
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95.5%
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5 comments
144 forecasters
US and China reach an agreement to limit frontier AI development before 2029?
9%
chance
1 comment
31 forecasters
US-China AI Treaty
2040
45%
2035
36%
2030
12%
2025
result:
No
19 comments
102 forecasters
Date of next NASA Moon Landing
Current estimate
27 Aug 2029
3 comments
22 forecasters
China allows editing Wikipedia by 2030
4%
chance
3 comments
126 forecasters
Crewed mission beyond Earth-Moon system
1%
chance
21 comments
110 forecasters
US-China AGI-limiting treaty signed before 2030?
5%
chance
4 comments
47 forecasters
Restrictions on US Pres War Powers by 2030
30%
chance
2 comments
24 forecasters
US-China AI Treaty?
2025
result:
No
2030
15%
2035
25%
2040
36%