20 comments
15 forecasters
What will be the Council on Foreign Relations' count of conflicts with significant or greater impact on US interests on January 1, 2024?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 5, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 7, 2022
Will a new war or a substantial escalation to a previous war kill at least 5,000 people in 2025?
25% chance
2.1k
Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?
12% chance
43
Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?
49% chance
87