Question

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters115

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 2.5%)

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50%

community: 1%

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Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Dec 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 3, 2023

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

SpaceX launches giant Super Heavy-Starship rocket on critical test flight

CBS•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.1%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

Who will be the first group to land a human on Mars?

Authors:

AlexL

Opened:

Dec 15, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 30, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 3, 2023

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

SpaceX launches giant Super Heavy-Starship rocket on critical test flight

CBS•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.1%

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%