51 comments
110 forecasters
When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 22, 2022
Closes:May 1, 2023
Resolved:May 8, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 23, 2022
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
3% chance
409
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
2% chance
195
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174