🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will Russia launch a new major land offensive in Ukraine outside of claimed oblasts?

Resolved :Above upper bound2023-05-01
19
51
Total Forecasters110
Community Prediction2023-05-01 (2023-05-01 - 2023-05-01)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2023-05-01
...
...
...
...
>2023-05-01 00:00
>2023-05-01 00:00
>2023-05-01 00:00
94.2%

What was the final result?Above upper bound

Community Baseline Score
110.8
Community Peer Score
69.8
Authors:
MetaCalculator
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2022-2023 Leaderboard
Chernihiv
Donetsk
Luhansk
Kherson
Rivne
Zhytomyr
Volyn Oblast
Belarus–Russia relations
Sumy

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