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If you believe we should include forecasts for more states, let us know!","shareOnFacebook":"Share on Facebook","shareOnTwitter":"Share on Twitter","shareInComment":"Share in comment","youPredicted":"You predicted","embed":"embed","share":"share","270VotesToWin":"270 votes to win","expectedElectoralVotes":"Expected Electoral Votes","electoralVotes":"Electoral Votes","0Votes":"0 Votes","538Votes":"538 Votes","electionHubDescription":"Explore Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election","2024USElectionHub":"2024 US Election Hub","safeParty":"Safe {party}","partyWinProbability":"{party} Win Probability ↗","settingsPreferences":"Preferences","settingsSubscriptions":"Subscriptions","nTriggers":"{n} triggers","settingsQuestionNotifications":"Question Notifications","settingsEmailNotifications":"Email Notifications","settingsUserEmail":"User Email","settingsNewEmail":"New Email","settingsNewQuestionsInTournament":"New questions in tournaments I follow","settingsEmailChangeDescription":"Enter a new email address and a password, and we'll send you a link to change your email.","settingsChangeEmailAddress":"Change email address","settingsChangeEmailAddressSuccess":"A confirmation email has been sent to your new address. Please follow the link inside to activate it.","settingsMentionsInComments":"Mentions in comments","settingsQuestionResolution":"Resolved Questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestions":"Significant movement on predicted questions","settingsSignificantMovementOnPredictedQuestionsTooltip":"You will receive a notification email when the Community Prediction changes by more than 10% on any question you've predicted. Emails are batched every hour.","newsLetter":"Newsletter","research":"Research","updates":"Updates","posts":"posts","notebook":"notebook","existingQuestion":"Existing Question","questionId":"Question ID","addQuestion":"Add Question","addExistingQuestion":"Add Existing Question","existingQuestionExample":"Add an existing Metaculus question to your Community","notebookExample":"text-based content that is not a question","conditionalPair":"conditional pair","conditionalPairExample":"If it rains today, will it rain tomorrow?","dateGroup":"date group","dateGroupExample":"When will it rain for the following cities?","numericGroup":"numeric group","numericGroupExample":"How much will it rain for these cities?","binaryGroup":"binary group","binaryGroupExample":"Will it rain in these cities today?","binaryQuestion":"binary question","binaryQuestionExample":"Will it rain today?","numericQuestion":"numeric question","numericRange":"numeric range","numericRangeExample":"How much rain next month?","dateRange":"date range","dateRangeExample":"When will it rain?","multipleChoiceExample":"Which city will get the most rain?","questionGroup":"question group","singleQuestion":"single question","createNewContent":"create new content","onlyRegisterUserCanCreate":"Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now!","createQuestionDescription1":"Check out our question writing guide for tips. Good questions are approved faster, and get more predictions. If you just have an idea, or don't want to fill out the whole submission form, post your idea in our suggestion thread.","createQuestionDescription2":"We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.","binaryQuestionDescription":"Binary questions are generally of the form \"Will X happen?\" They either resolve as Yes or No.","multipleChoiceDescription":"Multiple choice questions are generally of the form \"Which of the following will happen?\". 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Examples: \"NASA 2022 spacesuit contract winner?\" or \"EU GDP from 2025 to 2035?\"","backgroundInformation":"Background Information","backgroundInfoExplanation":"Provide background information for your question in a factual and unbiased tone. Links should be added to relevant and helpful resources using markdown syntax: [Link title](https://link-url.com).","resolutionCriteriaExplanation":"A good question will almost always resolve unambiguously. If you have a data source by which the question will resolve, link to it here. 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Click for the final rankings.","FABQ1Start":"Check out the final rankings for last year's Q4 tournament!","inReviewStatusBox1":"This question now needs to be approved by a Metaculus Moderator. Questions that conform to our Question Writing Guidelines, and concern one of our core topics, have better chances of being approved, and faster.","inReviewStatusBox2":"All Metaculus users are encouraged to give feedback on questions during Review, and upvote the questions they find interesting and/or well written. Questions with a positive vote balance will receive priority attention from Administrators. Questions with a significantly negative vote balance will be rejected by default.","inReviewStatusBox4":"Note that this question cannot be approved until both its parent and child have been approved.","inReviewStatusBox5":"This question now needs to be approved by an administrator. You can notify administrators by tagging @admins in a comment.","inCommunityReviewStatus1":"This question needs approval from a Community curator like you. You can also make edits, tag the author in a comment below, send the question back to Drafts for revision, or reject the question.Some suggestions for high-quality questions:","inCommunityReviewStatus2":"

Define terms and be concrete. Links are helpful.

Questions should be simple to resolve and not require a great deal of admin effort.

The title and wording of the question should align with the resolution criteria.

Try this test: People in the future agree on how this question resolved. If they can’t, it may need clarification

","draftStatusBox1":"Your submission is now a Draft.","draftStatusBox2":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!","draftStatusBox3":"Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by administrators. Thank you!","newSubquestion":"new subquestion","bulkEdit":"Bulk Edit","bulkEditDescription":"Edit question attributes in bulk.","subquestionDetails":"subquestion details","subquestions":"subquestions","binaryQuestionGroup":"binary question group","binaryQuestionGroupDescription":"Binary question groups contain questions that generally have the form \"Will X happen?\" and resolve as Yes or No.","numericQuestionGroup":"numeric question group","numericQuestionGroupDescription":"Numeric question groups contain questions that ask about the value of an unknown future quantity and resolve within a specified range.","dateQuestionGroup":"date question group","dateQuestionGroupDescription":"Date question groups contain questions that ask when something will happen and resolve within a specified date range.","groupVariableDescription":"What the subquestion labels represent (e.g. year, country, etc).","categoryPickerDescription":"A name for the parameter which varies between subquestions, like \"Option\", \"Year\" or \"Country\"","subquestionLabel":"Subquestion label","subquestionLabelDescription":"The label or parameter which identifies this subquestion, like \"Option 1\", \"2033\" or \"France\"","conditionalPairDescription":"A Conditional Pair is a special type of Question Group that elicits conditional probabilities. 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It's a skill, and Metaculus helps you hone it.","onboardingStep1Paragraph2":"Let's make a few quick predictions to get you started.","onboardingStep1Paragraph3":"First, pick a topic you care about.","skipTutorial":"Skip Tutorial","remindMeLater":"Remind me later","onboardingRemindMeLaterDescription":"(You can always find the tutorial later in the menu at the top of every page)","skipQuestions":"Skip question","onboardingStep2Title":"Here's a real Metaculus question about {topicName}:","onboardingStep2CommunityThinks":"Other forecasters tend to think this is","onboardingStep2CommunityGives":"They give it","onboardingStep2WhatDoYouThink":"What do you think? Do you agree with","onboardingStep2Disagree":"Disagree?","onboardingStep2LessLikely":"Less likely","onboardingStep2AboutRight":"About right","onboardingStep2MoreLikely":"More likely","onboardingStep2Excellent":"Excellent. Below you can see your prediction quantified next to the community's. Does that look about right? 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Our Pro selection methodology uses the Metaculus Leaderboards, combining the Peer Accuracy, Baseline Accuracy, and Comments leaderboards to produce a weighted average score across those leaderboards and across different leaderboard periods. Pros are selected from forecasters who have the highest score on this combined metric, representing the very best forecasters from all of Metaculus. Note that while the Peer score is weighted highest in this combined metric, the weighting is such that forecasters must have good scores in all categories.","robustTrackRecordsTitle":"Robust Track Records","robustTrackRecordsInfo":"Pro Forecasters must have at least 75 resolved questions and must have made predictions across multiple subject areas, with at least one year of experience making predictions.

We also consider recruiting forecasters who have demonstrated excellent forecasting ability elsewhere.","clearCommentsAndCommunicationTitle":"Clear Comments and Communication","clearCommentsAndCommunicationInfo":"Our Pros work on projects for external partners who value clear reasoning to better interpret the forecasts. We select Pros who have a history of making clear and insightful comments, and who are willing to disagree with their peers, but in a polite and respectful manner.","expressionOfInterestFormMessage":"We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are great at providing constructive feedback on submitted questions to become paid moderators. Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.","dateInputDetails":"Date and time is in your local timezone [{timezone}]","postCreateErrorMinSubquestions":"A question group must have at least one subquestion","insertEquation":"Insert Equation","choseEquationType":"Choose the type of equation you want to add. To edit it, simply click on it within the editor.","inline":"Inline","block":"Block","accountInactiveModalTitle":"You've got mail!","accountInactiveModalBody":"Please confirm your email associated with your {login} account to be able to log in.","accountInactiveModalResendButton":"Resend activation email","welcomeToMetaculusCommunity":"Welcome to the Metaculus community!","reviewCommunityGuidelines":"Before posting a comment, please take a moment to review our Community Guidelines. We value thoughtful, respectful, and constructive contributions that help foster meaningful discussions.","keepCivilStayOnTopic":"Keep it civil, stay on topic, and avoid low-effort comments. Reasoning copied directly from AI tools is not allowed. We will delete comments that violate our Community Guidelines.","understand":"I understand","editProfile":"Edit Profile","forecastingPerformance":"Forecasting Performance","totalPrizes":"Total Prizes","totalEarned":"Total Earned","currentRank":"Current Rank","bestEver":"Best Ever","questionsBy":"Questions by","closeDateError":"The close date must be after the open date. Change the open date here or edit the question to change the close date.","table":"Table","slider":"Slider","lowerBound":"Lower bound","quartiles":"Quartiles","upperBound":"Upper bound","leaderboardCpInfo":"This is the main prediction aggregated from all forecasters on each question.

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