🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%
4
5
Total Forecasters153
Community Prediction99% (99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
36.7
Community Peer Score
24.1
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
Elections
2022-2023 Leaderboard
2024 Elections (US)
Scott Alexander
Republican Party (US)
Donald Trump

Comments

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