Question

Will the 'Effective Altruism' movement continue to grow through 2020?

Resolved:No

37 comments37

Total Forecasters129

Community Prediction

40%

(24% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-31.3

Community Peer Score

31.3

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Sep 13, 2018

Closes:

Sep 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2018

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

40%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Sep 13, 2018

Closes:

Sep 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 13, 2018

2016-2020 Leaderboard

Will the total interest in Effective Altruism on Google Trends in 2030 be at least 0.2 times the total interest in 2017?

79%

Will there be another donor on the scale of 2020 Good Ventures in the Effective Altruist space in 2026?

40%

In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?

85%