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100
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100 forecasters
ACX 2023 Prediction Contest
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On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?
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11 comments
240 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
Gavin Newsom
26.1%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
10.4%
Pete Buttigieg
7.4%
Other
43.5%
4 others
2 comments
93 forecasters
Markets give >20% to a twice-elected president's renomination in these years?
2021-2022
result:
No
2023-2024
result:
No
2025-2026
4%
2027-2028
15%
19 comments
62 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Chad Bianco
1%
Steve Hilton
8%
Tom Steyer
24.5%
Xavier Becerra
65.2%
4 others
16 comments
161 forecasters
Democrat Wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
61%
chance
5 comments
50 forecasters
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Democratic Party
59.9%
Republican Party
40%
Other
0.1%
14 comments
247 forecasters
Who will be the 2028 Republican nominee for President of the United States?
JD Vance
44.8%
Ron DeSantis
4.7%
Marco Rubio
17.7%
Other
27%
4 others
0 comments
6 forecasters
What will be the Dem Electoral College margin in 2028?
Current estimate
-0.644 votes
7 comments
24 forecasters
Will the next U.S. President have a beard or mustache?
10%
chance