Question

Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?

Resolved:No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters137

Community Prediction

(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

46.2

Community Peer Score

21.1

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Health & Pandemics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

How many people will be reported to have died per year of COVID-19 on average during the years 2022-2025 in the United States?

117k

How many reported COVID-19 deaths will occur (globally) in 2025?

143k

What will be the maximum global single-year death toll attributable to a single pandemic between 2022 to 2121?

38.2M