Question

In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?

Resolved:No

9 comments9

Total Forecasters124

Community Prediction

(0.3% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

26.1

Community Peer Score

33.8

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Health & Pandemics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Dec 22, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 12, 2023

ACX 2023 Prediction Contest

Health & Pandemics

2022-2023 Leaderboard

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

0.1%

Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?

28%