6 comments
48 forecasters
Will Chase Bank send a notice to customers about updates to its security protocols, referencing the threat of social engineering attacks that can be attributed to LLMs, before 2024?
10%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 10% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 4, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 30, 2022
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Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
130
Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?
78% chance
53
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.12M B
(194k - 8.4M)
1.12M B
(194k - 8.4M)
51 forecasters