57 comments
224 forecasters
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?
1%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 1% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Dec 28, 2022
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolved:Jan 2, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 30, 2022
Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?
0.1% chance
129
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?
1.9% chance
91
Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?
72% chance
65