Authors:
Opened:Sep 14, 2018
Closes:Jan 19, 2020
Resolved:Feb 2, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Sep 15, 2018
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?
3% chance
168
Will President Trump formally invoke his authority under the Constitution to adjourn Congress before 2026?
2% chance
112
If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?
10% chance
64