Question

Will Microsoft integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Bing Search before September 30, 2023?

Resolved:Yes

17 comments17

Total Forecasters102

Community Prediction

92%

(88% - 96%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 92%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

30.0

Community Peer Score

2.6

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Dec 27, 2022

Closes:

Sep 30, 2023

Resolves:

Sep 30, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 29, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

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Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

10%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?

10%

Authors:

dschwarz

Opened:

Dec 27, 2022

Closes:

Sep 30, 2023

Resolves:

Sep 30, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 29, 2022

Business of AI

Artificial Intelligence

2022-2023 Leaderboard

What is Perplexity, the AI startup said to be catching Meta and Apple’s attention

CNN•Jun 24, 2025

Google introduces AI mode to users in India

TechCrunch•Jun 24, 2025

The $14 Billion AI Google Killer

•Jun 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

10%

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

37%

Will Google's search market share drop below 85% in 2025?

10%