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17 comments
129 forecasters

When will GPT-4 be announced?

community
18 Mar 2023 17:39
result
14 Mar 2023 11:00
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
dschwarz
Opened:Dec 27, 2022
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Mar 14, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 29, 2022
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When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

8
Mar 2034
6
Jun 2032
4
31 May 2029
1 other
21 forecasters

When will OpenAI release GPT-6?

06 May 2027
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06 May 2027
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15 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

6
Apr 2032
4
Dec 2031
2
17 May 2028
11 forecasters
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