modeling precise estimations assembling calibrated wisdom generating contingent forecasts aggregating predictive understanding composing definitive predictions mapping the future mapping precise contingencies crowdsourcing predictive futures mapping calibrated contingencies formulating definitive contingencies delivering intelligent futures composing predictive contingencies forecasting calibrated contingencies predicting probable estimations

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will a fifth nation be able to launch people into space?

On 12 Apr 1961 the first Soviet flies into space.

On 20 Feb 1962 the first American flies into space.

On 15 Oct 2003 the first Chinese flies into space.

India plans to send an astronaut on their own rocket by 2022, though there’s some doubt about that.

That’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.

Part of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:

When will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?

For the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own launch service provider (LSP), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.