Question

Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?

80 comments80

Total Forecasters616

Community Prediction

40%

(18% - 70%)

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50%

community: 40%

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Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Sep 16, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 16, 2018

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

NASA has sparked a race to develop the data pipeline to Mars

TechCrunch•Aug 13, 2025

NASA’s nuclear gamble on the moon faces growing skepticism

Independent•Aug 13, 2025

NASA Plans to Establish 100-Kilowatt Nuclear Reactor on the Moon by 2030

•Aug 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?

80%

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Sep 16, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

Dec 31, 2099

Spot Scoring Time:

Sep 16, 2018

Economy & Business

Technology

Space

NASA has sparked a race to develop the data pipeline to Mars

TechCrunch•Aug 13, 2025

NASA’s nuclear gamble on the moon faces growing skepticism

Independent•Aug 13, 2025

NASA Plans to Establish 100-Kilowatt Nuclear Reactor on the Moon by 2030

•Aug 10, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a sustained human settlement on the Moon for at least 1 year before 2030?

0.1%

Will humanity maintain a continuous off-Earth presence until 2050?

80%