Question

Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?

Resolved :Yes

46 comments46

Total Forecasters175

Community Prediction

99.9%

(99% - 99.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99.9%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

12.8

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 7, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 7, 2023

Russia Loses 61 Artillery Systems, 18 AFVs and 5 Tanks in a Day: Ukraine

Newsweek•Mar 25, 2025

Ukraine will need major rebuilding when war ends − here’s why the US isn’t likely to invest in its recovery with a new Marshall Plan

The Conversation•Mar 24, 2025

Russia has lost way more tanks than Ukraine. That's not awful for Putin.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

15%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 7, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 7, 2023

Russia Loses 61 Artillery Systems, 18 AFVs and 5 Tanks in a Day: Ukraine

Newsweek•Mar 25, 2025

Ukraine will need major rebuilding when war ends − here’s why the US isn’t likely to invest in its recovery with a new Marshall Plan

The Conversation•Mar 24, 2025

Russia has lost way more tanks than Ukraine. That's not awful for Putin.

Business Insider•Mar 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?

15%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

37%