Question

Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?

Resolved:No

32 comments32

Total Forecasters183

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.1

Community Peer Score

5.6

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 10, 2023

Economy & Business

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

The bond market has been on a roller coaster ride this year. Here are 3 predictions for what comes next.

Business Insider•Jun 20, 2025

Rappeport, Alan. "Record Debt Limit Increase Would Break Republican Precedent." The New York Times, 19 June 2025,

•Jun 19, 2025

Goldman Sachs Warns U.S. Debt to Hit 120% of GDP, Interest Payments to Reach $1 Trillion

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

22%

Will there be a US government shutdown before the 2028 presidential election?

50%

What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years?

136

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 10, 2023

Economy & Business

Politics

2023 Leaderboard

The bond market has been on a roller coaster ride this year. Here are 3 predictions for what comes next.

Business Insider•Jun 20, 2025

Rappeport, Alan. "Record Debt Limit Increase Would Break Republican Precedent." The New York Times, 19 June 2025,

•Jun 19, 2025

Goldman Sachs Warns U.S. Debt to Hit 120% of GDP, Interest Payments to Reach $1 Trillion

•Jun 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US Enter a Deflationary period before 2030?

22%

Will there be a US government shutdown before the 2028 presidential election?

50%

What will the United States' federal debt-to-GDP ratio be in the following years?

136