Question

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction

65%

(62% - 75%)

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50%

community: 65%

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Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 15, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2023

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Geopolitics

The ‘sacrifice zone’: villagers resist the EU’s green push for lithium mining

Guardian•Jun 21, 2025

Ukraine and U.S. to Develop Dobra Lithium Deposit Project

•Jun 19, 2025

Why It’s So Hard to Challenge China’s Rare Earths Dominance

Time•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

52.7%

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.54

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 15, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2023

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Technology

Geopolitics

The ‘sacrifice zone’: villagers resist the EU’s green push for lithium mining

Guardian•Jun 21, 2025

Ukraine and U.S. to Develop Dobra Lithium Deposit Project

•Jun 19, 2025

Why It’s So Hard to Challenge China’s Rare Earths Dominance

Time•Jun 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

52.7%

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.54