Question

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction

65%

(62% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 15, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2023

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Albemarle Corporation

Why Ukraine’s minerals are so special – and why Trump wants them so much

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Trump invokes wartime powers to increase production of critical minerals

CNN•Mar 21, 2025

Coreshell has a plan to slash the price of American made batteries

TechCrunch•Mar 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

52.7%

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

58.2

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.78

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 15, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 15, 2023

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Albemarle Corporation

Why Ukraine’s minerals are so special – and why Trump wants them so much

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Trump invokes wartime powers to increase production of critical minerals

CNN•Mar 21, 2025

Coreshell has a plan to slash the price of American made batteries

TechCrunch•Mar 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

52.7%

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

58.2

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.78