14 comments
50 forecasters
Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?
8%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 8% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 10, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2023
Resolved:Feb 5, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 11, 2023
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
20 Jul 2026
(11 Aug 2025 - Jul 2031)
5 forecasters
Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?
40% chance
42
Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?
80% chance
24