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104 forecasters

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104 forecasters

Computing and Math

Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?

ResolvedYes

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4 comments14 forecasters

First Tech Giant's AI University Course

Current estimate

2 comments118 forecasters

AI-authored paper published at NeurIPS, ICML, or ICLR before 2028?

8 comments136 forecasters

25% of NYT Best Sellers Written by AI by 2050

1 comment23 forecasters

AI to publish in a top scientific journal

Current estimate

2 comments80 forecasters

By 2028–29, will most of the 20 largest US school districts adopt AI tutoring?

3 comments18 forecasters

AI-written article in the New York Times

In 2026-202761.7%

In 2028-202928%

2030 or later10.2%

13 comments23 forecasters

AI Book Summarization Commonly Available

Current estimate

8 comments37 forecasters

Development of Human-Level Language Models

Current estimate