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22 comments
24 forecasters

What coalition will govern Berlin after the 2023 repeat state election?

SPD+Greens+Leftresult: No
SPD+CDUresult: Yes
CDU+SPD+Greensresult: No
Authors:
MaxR
Opened:Jan 21, 2023
Closes:Mar 31, 2023
Resolved:Apr 27, 2023
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
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Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right AfD party the biggest winner in German local elections
PBS NewsHour•Sep 15, 2025
Associated Press logo
Merz’s conservatives ahead but far-right party the biggest winner in German local elections
Associated Press•Sep 15, 2025
Spectator (UK) logo
The AfD’s mission to seduce West Germany is paying off
Spectator (UK)•Sep 15, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which party will lead the next German government?

CDU/CSU
73.4%
SPD
17.6%
AfD
5.2%
5 others
8 forecasters

Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?

20% chance
69

Which party will win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies in the next Italian election?

Brothers of Italy
74%
Democratic Party
24%
Five Star Movement
1%
6 others
24 forecasters
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