265 forecasters

Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 21, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2023

2023 Leaderboard

‘Things have changed’: Schumer threatens government shutdown over healthcare

MSNBC•Sep 14, 2025

Government shutdown draws near as Democrats push for healthcare funding

Guardian•Sep 13, 2025

Schumer warns of a shutdown if Republicans don’t accept Democrats’ health care demands

PBS NewsHour•Sep 12, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch