265 forecasters

Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?

0.1%chance

0.1%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 0% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 21, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 23, 2023

2023 Leaderboard

Democrats stake out opposition to spending bill, raising threat of a shutdown

PBS NewsHour•Sep 17, 2025

Republicans Get Warning About Government Shutdown in New Poll

Newsweek•Sep 17, 2025

Government shutdown fears intensify as Democrats stiffen resolve to block GOP spending bill

CNN•Sep 17, 2025

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