423 forecasters

Will Xi Jinping keep leading China past 2022?

99%chance

99%chance

ResolvedYes

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 99% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Oct 1, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2022

Resolved:

Jan 1, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 1, 2018

🏆 2016-2025 Leaderboard

China’s leader Xi Jinping lays out plan for next five years of Communist Party

Independent•Oct 20, 2025

China’s fourth plenum: Roiled by purges and buffeted by US frictions, leadership meets to chart country’s rise

CNN•Oct 20, 2025

China Announces Missing Politburo General Purged for ‘Serious Duty-Related Crimes’

Breitbart•Oct 17, 2025

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