90 forecasters

In 2016, will gravitational wave astronomy discover something completely new?

37%chance

37%chance

ResolvedNo

ResolvedNo

The community gave this a 37% chance, and it resolved No.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Feb 18, 2016

Closes:

May 31, 2016

Resolved:

Dec 30, 2016

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 19, 2016

Natural Sciences

2016 Leaderboard

After 10 years of black hole science, Stephen Hawking proven right

NPR Online News•Sep 11, 2025

Black hole collision confirms decades-old predictions by Einstein and Hawking

CNN•Sep 11, 2025

Gravitational waves finally prove Stephen Hawking's black hole theorem

New Scientist•Sep 10, 2025

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