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How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

19 comments19

16 forecasters

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Year

median

(states)

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This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>49
community	7.754	11.45	15.62	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	7.754	—
median	11.45	—
upper 75%	15.62	—
Upper bound
>49	0.1%	—

Resolved

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 15

2035

2024

2030

2025

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 27, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 1

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

US Environmental Protection Agency

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

California

Clean air mandates exacerbating dearth in gas tax revenues used for roads, bridges, infrastructure: Expert

FOX News•Mar 25, 2025

States team up to defend green transportation projects targeted by Trump

Associated Press•Mar 22, 2025

California announces it has more electric charging stations than gas station nozzles

CBS•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

33.6

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

12.5

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

4.8%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 27, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2035

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 1

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

US Environmental Protection Agency

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

California

Clean air mandates exacerbating dearth in gas tax revenues used for roads, bridges, infrastructure: Expert

FOX News•Mar 25, 2025

States team up to defend green transportation projects targeted by Trump

Associated Press•Mar 22, 2025

California announces it has more electric charging stations than gas station nozzles

CBS•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

33.6

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

12.5

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

4.8%