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3
8
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3 comments
8 forecasters
AI Technical Benchmarks
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Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?
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Current estimate
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
5.5×10³⁰ FLOP
(4.1×10²⁸ - 1.1×10³⁹)
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
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Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
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64 comments
174 forecasters
Transformative AI Date
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Jun 2039
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Greatest Computation Used in AI Training
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Exfiltration of Compute-Intensive AI Models
Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32
99.4%
Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32
87.7%
Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28
77.5%
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30
72.8%
Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26
result:
No
25 comments
67 forecasters
Years Between GWP Growth >25% and AGI
Current estimate
5.05 years
26 comments
224 forecasters
GWP Doubles in 4 Years vs. 1 Year by 2050
56%
chance
8 comments
94 forecasters
GWP Doubles in <4 Years by 2050
40%
chance
3 comments
28 forecasters
How larger will AI from non-authoritarian states be in 2030?
Current estimate
3.6×10²⁵ FLOP
10 comments
53 forecasters
Billions of Param of Largest ML Model by 2030
Current estimate
1.29M B