Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?
The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but much of the world over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate. (In 2018, the U.S. government still mandates a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have whalloped low fat diets in clinical trials.)
In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described here:)
An estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.
Per a CDC report from a few years ago, in the United States:
Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)
What will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/obese (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.