What percentage of Americans will be considered obese or overweight in 2030?

Your submission is now in Draft mode. Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!


The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but much of the world over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate. (In 2018, the U.S. government still mandates a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have whalloped low fat diets in clinical trials.)

In any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described here:)

An estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.

Per a CDC report from a few years ago, in the United States:

Percent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)

What will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/obese (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site