Question

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?

Resolved:No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score

5.0

Authors:

rob.louis

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 6, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump with NATO ‘all the way’ on Article 5 as leaders gather at summit

Al Jazeera•Jun 25, 2025

Trump REFUSES to commit to NATO Article Five clause as alliance leaders desperately try to win him over - from fawning text messages to cutting today's meeting short so he doesn't walk out on them

Daily Mail•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Authors:

rob.louis

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 6, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

NATO allies agree to higher 5% defense spending target

CNBC•Jun 25, 2025

Trump with NATO ‘all the way’ on Article 5 as leaders gather at summit

Al Jazeera•Jun 25, 2025

Trump REFUSES to commit to NATO Article Five clause as alliance leaders desperately try to win him over - from fawning text messages to cutting today's meeting short so he doesn't walk out on them

Daily Mail•Jun 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%