Question

Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?

Resolved:No
26
84
Total Forecasters286
Community Prediction
0.4%
(0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.4%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Peer Score
12.9
Community Baseline Score
73.7
Authors:
NMorrisonRyanBeck
Opened:Feb 2, 2023
Closes:Dec 31, 2024
Resolves:Aug 1, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 3, 2023
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Geopolitics
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