📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Group

What will the total number of confirmed current hospitalizations due to COVID in Virginia for the Saturdays of the weeks shown below?

2
13
30 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Weekresolution

PDF

CDF

community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>1.3k
558.3
582.5
614.5
0.4%

What was the final result?578

Community Baseline Score
84.3
Community Peer Score
57.1

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Keep Virginia Safe II: Hospitalizations Series
Health & Pandemics
2023 Leaderboard
Virginia
COVID-19
COVID-19 vaccine
Public health
Medicine
Immunology
Virology

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