Question

By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters400

Community Prediction

35%

(12% - 66%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35%

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Oct 11, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 12, 2018

Ragnarök Series

Global Birth Rates Are Falling, but the Answer Isn’t to Have More Babies

Scientific American•Aug 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

24%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

23.9%