21 comments
404 forecasters
By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?
33%chance
Forecast Timeline
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Authors:
Opened:Oct 11, 2018
Closes:Jan 1, 2100
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2100
Spot Scoring Time:Oct 12, 2018
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?
1% chance
192
Ragnarök Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
24% chance
287
Ragnarök Question Series: if a global catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
23.9% chance
34