Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
Log in
Sign Up
45
468
forecasters
36
45 comments
468 forecasters
Ragnarök Series
4 more...
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?
Predict
Follow
share
embed
27%
chance
Timeline
Histogram
1d
1w
2m
all
Comments (45)
Timeline
Key Factors (0)
Question Info
Similar Questions
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
22 comments
329 forecasters
AI catastrophe to cause (near) extinction
30%
chance
2 comments
166 forecasters
Synth-bio GC to cause (near) extinction?
7%
chance
9 comments
187 forecasters
GC to be caused by nanotech, if it occurs?
2%
chance
3 comments
37 forecasters
"Other risk" to cause (near) extinction
25%
chance
19 comments
108 forecasters
Existential risk from AGI vs AGI timelines
2022-10-10 to 2024-12-31
20%
2025-01-01 to 2029-12-31
40%
2030-01-01 to 2039-12-31
28%
2040-01-01 to 2059-12-31
15%
2060-01-01 to 2099-12-31
9.3%
4 comments
38 forecasters
CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe
75%
chance
18 comments
165 forecasters
Date of AI Catastrophe, If Occurring by 2100
Current estimate
Apr 2037
9 comments
84 forecasters
CTs AI Extinction Before 2100
3.5%
chance