35 forecasters

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35.1%chance

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Authors:

Opened:

Feb 12, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2071

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 14, 2023

Ethiopia inaugurates Africa's biggest dam amid regional tensions

NPR Online News•Sep 9, 2025

Ethiopia inaugurates Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam as Egypt rift deepens

Guardian•Sep 9, 2025

Ethiopia launches massive hydropower dam against bitter Egyptian opposition

CNN•Sep 9, 2025

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