Question

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

35 comments35

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction

99%

(98% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

38.8

Community Peer Score

13.7

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 5, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 6, 2023

General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon

M142 HIMARS

RAF jets will police Ukrainian skies under proposals discussed by Starmer's coalition of the willing - as Europe 'plans US phase-out from NATO within ten years'

Daily Mail•Mar 21, 2025

Trump has weakened Ukraine's hand against Russia. It fits with a pattern of Western behavior that has shaped the war.

Business Insider•Mar 21, 2025

Zelensky Issues F-16 Update Amid Russian 'Lies'

Newsweek•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

30%

Will Ukraine launch a nuclear weapons program before 2026?

Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 5, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 6, 2023

General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon

M142 HIMARS

RAF jets will police Ukrainian skies under proposals discussed by Starmer's coalition of the willing - as Europe 'plans US phase-out from NATO within ten years'

Daily Mail•Mar 21, 2025

Trump has weakened Ukraine's hand against Russia. It fits with a pattern of Western behavior that has shaped the war.

Business Insider•Mar 21, 2025

Zelensky Issues F-16 Update Amid Russian 'Lies'

Newsweek•Mar 20, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

30%