Question
Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?
Resolved:NoTotal Forecasters76
Community Prediction
0.1%
(0.1% - 1%)
Make a Prediction
Did this actually happen?No
Community Peer Score
2.0
Community Baseline Score
97.0
Authors:
Opened:Feb 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 9, 2023
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2%
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Apr 2035
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
Authors:
Opened:Feb 8, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 9, 2023
Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?
1.2%
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Apr 2035
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%