141 forecasters

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

12.5%chance

Forecast Timeline

No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.

Add key factor

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 15, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2050

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2055

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 16, 2023

As US gets tough on Moscow, has Putin’s strategy of playing Trump run its course?

CNN•Oct 23, 2025

Putin has finally pushed Trump too far – and will pay the price

Independent•Oct 23, 2025

The U.S. Tactic That Russia Is Using to Hoard Power

Atlantic•Oct 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the Democracy Index of Russia in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit?

When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

(24 Dec 2027 - Feb 2032)

(24 Dec 2027 - Feb 2032)

662 forecasters

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?