Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

Will the identity of Bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, be revealed to the general public by 2025?

Question

Few anonymous people--save maybe Banksy and Qanon--have generated as much press as "Satoshi Nakamoto", the maverick who developed bitcoin.

Haven't heard of the man? Here's an executive summary per The Economist:

ON PAPER—or at least on the blockchain—Satoshi Nakamoto is one of the richest people on the planet.... But Mr Nakamoto, though actively involved with his brainchild in its early history, has been silent since 2011. An army of amateur detectives has been trying to work out who he really is, but there is frustratingly little to go on. While developing bitcoin he claimed to be male, in his late 30s and living in Japan, but even that information is suspect.

Will we ever find out his true identity? Speculation abounds. (See here and here and here.) As noted above, Nakamoto is estimated to have more than a million bitcoins, mined very early on. So he'd be worth well over $10Bn at current prices (as of launch), perhaps more. If he hasn't lost his thumb drive.

Question resolves postive if Satoshi's true, corroborated identity is revealed to the world at large by April 5, 2025, his birthday. (Or is it??)

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.