91 forecasters

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%chance

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Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 26, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 28, 2023

Display of firepower in Russia-Belarus war games stirs unease across Europe

Guardian•Sep 15, 2025

Russia-Belarus military drill tests nerves on NATO’s eastern flank at the end of a tense week

CNN•Sep 12, 2025

Russia and Belarus launch military exercise that fueled Western concerns

Associated Press•Sep 12, 2025

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