10 comments
64 forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?
March 15, 2024result: No
March 15, 2025result: No
March 15, 20260.1%
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Authors:
Opened:Mar 19, 2023
Closes:Mar 15, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Mar 15, 2026
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
64.8% chance
31
Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?
0.1% chance
174
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
307 forecasters