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139 comments
1.2k forecasters

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

community
14 Aug 2025
result
07 Aug 2025 17:00

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
H559
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:May 14, 2026
Resolved:Aug 7, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2023
Business of AI
Effective Institutions Project
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Verge logo
Microsoft favors Anthropic over OpenAI for Visual Studio Code
Verge•Sep 16, 2025
TechCrunch logo
OpenAI upgrades Codex with a new version of GPT-5
TechCrunch•Sep 15, 2025
Newsweek logo
OpenAI Identifies Reason ChatGPT 'Hallucinates'
Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will OpenAI release GPT-6?

06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
15 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

8
Mar 2034
6
Jun 2032
4
31 May 2029
1 other
21 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

6
Apr 2032
4
Dec 2031
2
17 May 2028
11 forecasters
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