Question
When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
Resolved:07 Aug 2025 17:00Total Forecasters1229
Community Prediction
14 Aug 2025
(30 Jul 2025 - 12 Sep 2025)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 30 Jul 2025 | — |
| median | 14 Aug 2025 | — |
| upper 75% | 12 Sep 2025 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15 May 2026 | 2.4% | — |
What was the final result?07 Aug 2025 17:00
Community Peer Score
59.2
Community Baseline Score
7.0
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:May 14, 2026
Resolves:May 15, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2023
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
21 Dec 2027
Authors:
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:May 14, 2026
Resolves:May 15, 2026
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2023
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?
22 May 2029
When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?
17 May 2028
When will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public?
21 Dec 2027