Question

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

130 comments130

Total Forecasters1171

Community Prediction

01 Sep 2025

(06 Jul 2025 - 12 Nov 2025)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15 May 2026
community	06 Jul 2025	01 Sep 2025	12 Nov 2025	5.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	06 Jul 2025	—
median	01 Sep 2025	—
upper 75%	12 Nov 2025	—
Upper bound
>15 May 2026	5.1%	—

Authors:

H559

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

May 14, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

May 15, 2026

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 16, 2023

Business of AI

Effective Institutions Project

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Guardian•Jul 17, 2025

OpenAI launches a general purpose agent in ChatGPT

TechCrunch•Jul 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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