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139 comments
1.2k forecasters

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

community
14 Aug 2025
result
07 Aug 2025 17:00

Key Factors

Forecast Timeline
Authors:
H559
Opened:Mar 15, 2023
Closes:May 14, 2026
Resolved:Aug 7, 2025
Spot Scoring Time:Mar 16, 2023
Business of AI
Effective Institutions Project
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
TechCrunch logo
OpenAI upgrades Codex with a new version of GPT-5
TechCrunch•Sep 15, 2025
Newsweek logo
OpenAI Identifies Reason ChatGPT 'Hallucinates'
Newsweek•Sep 9, 2025
Observer (NY) logo
OpenAI GPT vs. Google Gemini: the High-Stakes Battle Shaping the Future of A.I.
Observer (NY)•Sep 8, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will OpenAI release GPT-6?

06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
06 May 2027
(11 Nov 2026 - 29 Jan 2028)
15 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

8
Mar 2034
6
Jun 2032
4
31 May 2029
1 other
21 forecasters

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be downloadable by the general public?

6
Apr 2032
4
Dec 2031
2
17 May 2028
11 forecasters
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