12 comments
117 forecasters
What percent of the global population will identify as "religiously unaffiliated" in 2050?
Current estimate
21.2%
No key factors yetAdd some that might influence this forecast.
Authors:
Opened:Nov 11, 2018 
Closes:Dec 31, 2027 
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2060 
Spot Scoring Time:Nov 13, 2018 
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Will 'No Religion' responses represent at least 50% of the Australian population in the 2026 census?
40% chance
25
What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?
51.2% 
(40.7 - 61.2)
51.2% 
(40.7 - 61.2)
30 forecasters
Five years after AGI, what will be the biological human population?
8.87B people 
(8.4B - 9.46B)
8.87B people 
(8.4B - 9.46B)
39 forecasters
